Wales v France: The Beauty & Cruelty of Sport

I once read an interview with a sports reporter who said that when trying to come up with an opening for a piece he would ask himself "what would be the first thing I'd say to a mate in the pub who hadn't seen the game?", then start with that. That sounds like a sound method so I'll try it now in talking about the Wales v France game:

Bollocks.

It's a doosey of a game to try and write about, it ran the gamut of what makes sport so gloriously, irrationally brilliant, and how it can be so coldly cruel. I was going to debate the issue of the red card, but I've changed my mind, every Welsh fan has the rest of their rugby-watching lives to do that. People say it ruined the game, but I want to talk about what made the game great.

My favourite sportswriter, Simon Barnes, wrote that sport can be great in three main ways. There's the visceral, tribal excitement of watching 'your' team beat 'your rivals' team, derby games where the match is a proxy for years, decades, even centuries of conflict and enmity; Liverpool v Manchester United, Red Sox v The Yankees, India v Pakistan in cricket, and everything else. Sport can also be great when it surprises us with performances that transcend all our expectations; Usain Bolt's 9:58sec 100m, Senna's first lap at Donnington in '93, Don Bradman's carreer test batting average of 99.94, things which make us question what is possible. Finally, sport can also be great just for pure drama, giving us stories worthy of any page, stage or screen. This is what we saw on Saturday.

Going into the game Wales were favourites, not overwhelmingly though; their inexperience could undo them, France are always unpredictable customers and this is a world cup semi-final, knockout rugby, a small, anomalous moment can change everything.

The anticipation for every Welsh fan was palpable; if we just keep on playing as we have done, we'll have them beat and be in the final, our first ever final. Crazy stuff! They were 80/1 to win before the tournament! Their warm-ups hadn't lit the world up and there were a lot of questions about some of the younger, untested players. But nevertheless they found themselves on the brink of making history at Eden Park.

You sometimes hear people refer to games in sport as "fairytales" or "Hollywood stories". In fairytales and Hollywood a story starts with a setup, or equilibrium, as it's sometimes called. This is where the audience is presented with the 'natural' state of the world we are watching; there's a beautiful princess living contently in a kingdom and is in love with a handsome prince, Sam is running a small 'cafe' in Casablanca, trying to avoid the war that's raging, Arnold Schwarzenegger is the leader of a special ops unit who need to go into the jungle to take out some terrorists. In the context of Saturday's game; Wales are the in form team, favourites to beat the opposition (the French, so often the villains in Hollywood films) and reach the final of the World Cup. The game starts, James Hook kicks the first points and Wales take the lead, it was all going according to plan.

The drama then comes when the equilibrium that we're presented with is upset for some reason, this is usually referred to as the conflict, an unanticipated challenge for our protagonists which will force them to go through major changes. The princess is kidnapped by a troll so the prince must fight to save her, Sam's old flame and her Nazi-fighting lover turn up at the cafe looking for assistance forcing him to question his values, Arnie's actually fighting something unknown and much more dangerous than terrorists, forcing him to change the mission. For Wales this major conflict came when they lost their inspirational captain and one of their stand-out, irreplaceable players; Sam Warburton.


Now the team must dig deeper than they ever thought they would be asked too. They must change their plan for the game and their style of play. They all have to give more to make up for the missing man. Do they have the energy? Do they have the fortitude? Do they have the hearts and minds to fight back and win? These are the questions asked of them as they are pushed further and tested harder than ever before.

In stories this is where the protagonists learn about themselves as they adapt and grow and change. As a result of this conflict and the change in the characters we get a resolution to the story. In fairytales and Hollywood this is usually happy; The princess is saved by the brave prince and they live happily ever after, Sam realises he's still human and helps his old lover and her new lover to escape, doing his bit to fight the Nazi's, Arnie learns about his enemy, defeats him and escapes the jungle.


In our resolution Wales are trailing by a point after a valiant effort with 14-men, but manage to win a penalty with minutes left in the game. Halfpenny, the young full-back, steps up to take it. He stares at the posts, they're 50 metres away, a huge kick, but one that will win them the game and take them to the World Cup final. He lines the ball up and takes a few steps back. He stares at the ball and the posts, his mouth is dry, the sounds of the stadium recede, they're replaced by the rhythmic pounding of his nervous heart. He thinks back to his time as a young boy with his grandfather, practicing kicks on a valley's pitch on a cold day. The tension, the nerves, the enormity of the task disappear. All that's left is the simple purpose and the simple motions that he's practiced thousands of times. This is his calling. He approaches the ball, his foot swings through in a slow-motion arc and connects sweetly with the ball. As it flies through the air camera flashes explode like a thousand shooting stars and the breath of every person watching is held. The oval ball tumbles through the night air, end over end, carrying with it the hopes of a nation. Closer and closer it gets, closer and closer the final starts to feel, then it...

...falls short.

The ball doesn't reach over the cross bar, the young man doesn't fulfil his destiny, the team don't reach their final, the country doesn't celebrate. The game goes on, the points don't come, the final whistle goes, it's all over. Fade to black.

That's the story, that's the drama; setup, conflict, resolution. This time the resolution was not a happy Hollywood ending for Wales. It feels like a sad, empty, unjust, gutting ending to what had been an incredible and romantic journey.

But there are stories within stories; beginnings, middles and ends, within beginnings, middles and ends. The story of 'the tackle', within the story of 'the red-card', within the story of the 'the game', within the story of 'the tournament', within the story of 'Welsh rugby'. It keeps on going, all stories within a larger narrative. Wales will go on from here, carrying with them the changes they went through during the game and the tournament, and move on to the next story. First up is a 3rd place play-off against Australia, which I'll bet will provide a better spectacle than the final, then, of course, a six-nations next year where there will be new stories.

Well I've looked at the six nations schedule for next year, so how about this for one. The men from Wales, still with that hurt which burns like acid in their guts, go to the six-nations with one hell of a point to prove.

They start with a replay of the World Cup quarter final, a game against Ireland. There are flashbacks to 5 months ago in New Zealand, thoughts of a World Cup, the outcome of which shook them to their cores. After a nervy first half they manage to bury the memory of that tournament and come out to seal a vital and tough away victory to those ruddy, gnarly Irishmen, which they then follow up with a bruising encounter with the Scots. Next up, England, away. If they win this then they will be 3 for 3 and on course for a Grand Slam. It's a pulsating encounter as a reshaped and revived England team match them in so many areas, but Wales, trailing by 4 points with minutes to go, are taken over the try line by their ferocious captain, Warburton. Jubilation. They go on next to face Italy at home, which leaves one game. France.

Les Blues travel to the Millennium stadium on March 17th, almost 5 months to the day when they inflicted a cruel defeat on a young Welsh side. The afternoon is bitterly cold, but the stadium is fiery with passion and purpose. Shorn of their nutty Terry Thomas lookalike coach, Lievremont, an ambitious French side, also with 4 wins from 4 and playing for the Grand Slam, turn up. The game is fierce and close, as the rugby flows between crunching tackles and fearsome defence, it's the game we were all denied in the World Cup semi-final. There's minutes left on the clock, Wales trail by one point, they get a penalty in front of the posts 50 metres out, the Grand Slam is within touching distance. Leigh Halfpenny steps up. The kick is lined up, he is ready, the stadium simmers into silence, we're all back in Eden Park. The young man approaches the ball, his foot connects. The oval ball tumbles through the air, end over end, heading towards the posts, carrying with it the hopes of a nation. Closer and closer it gets, closer and closer the grand slam feels, then it...

The agony and the ecstasy of sport. Let's start the next story.

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Knock-Outs!

So in yesterday's RWC preview I covered the likely qualifiers from the four groups. For those of you too damn lazy to go and look at it, I had the group winners as:

New Zealand, England, Australia and South Africa

And the runners-up as:

France, Scotland, Ireland and Wales

Pretty standard stuff really, no shocks to speak of. But the group stages can forgive lackluster performances and even the occasional slip up, as it's all about the best over four games. The knockout stages though, not so kind. This is where mental fortitude is tested as rigorously as playing aptitude (hi New Zealand 2007!) and where any dog having it's day can topple a feckless giant (hi Australia 2007!). The importance of 'form' begins to waver as smaller variables have larger effects; an intercepted try may not ruin your tournament at the group stage, but it sure as hell can during the knockouts. This is where the World Cup really comes to life.

So in this do-or-die arena what can we expect from the quarter finals?

Quarter Final 1 - New Zealand vs Scotland

New Zealand to win. I don't know what more analysis I can provide. They'll win by a lot, probably. Maybe 20 points. Maybe 30. Actually I suppose there is one thing you can say; if Scotland don't qualify then New Zealand will likely face Argentina, and as both of those two are relatively weak quarter finalists, it may leave the All Blacks ill-prepared for whoever awaits them at the next stage. But probably not.

At least they can join Canada, Tonga and Georgia at Milford Sound.
It really is very nice, and well worth visiting.

Quarter Final 2 - England vs France

We're either going to see England grind out a narrow win by boring France, the officials and every non-English fan to tears, or France having one of those games where they seem to ascend from the realm of mortals and play like Gods, temporarily looking like the greatest team to ever chuck a rugby ball around...

A bit like these fellas (Wales 1971!)

A lot of people are citing England's impressive record against France in the World Cup and the Six Nations, going back to when they turned them over in the semi-finals in 2003, as evidence of them having some sort of psychological edge over the wayward French. But on their bad days a team of badgers have a psychological edge over France, the question is can England pressure them into having one of those bad days, the kind where they all mope around in their own half questioning the pointlessness of rugby and the Sisyphean nature of tournaments. Only a brave or foolish man would try and predict which French team will turn up. Luckily I'm pretty foolish (you should see the bets I've put on for this tournament!), so I'm going to call it for... France. They won't waste all that talent and be dumped out by England again. Surely?

Don't call me Shirley. It's DAME Shirley to you!

Quarter Final 3 - Australia vs Wales

*Groan* I've tried with all my specious reasoning and one-eyed delusion to find a way to convince myself that Wales have got a GOOD chance to beat the Wallabies, but it's just not happening. This view will change the closer we get to the quarter final (assuming Wales haven't undone themselves by losing to Namibia, or reinstating Gareth Jenkins), and by the time we're hearing the anthems being sung I'll be foaming at the mouth proclaiming an 80-point Welsh victory is imminent.

Don't worry, I'll calm down once Australia score
a breakaway try after 5 minutes.

Australia have been looking particularly good recently and Wales just don't look to be on the same level, plus they're not a team to cause too many upsets, they're usually the ones suffering them. I suppose if you're going to go out, better to do so against one of the likely finalists, there's no shame in that. This is what I, sadly, expect to be repeating to myself on October 8th. Thankfully, with these early morning kick-offs I'll be able to get drunk a lot quicker. Ah sweet, sweet alcohol, eases the pain.

Quarter Final 4 - South Africa vs Ireland

This one's going to be tasty. I envisage these two out of form teams having a bloody tear up on the ground, with two grizzled packs of gnarled old forwards clashing in a nasty and brutish fashion, trying to wrestle possession from one another. For those of us who don't mind occasionally seeing a rugby field turn into a battlefield (so that's most of us), it should provide plenty of entertainment.

It's gonna be like this, but with clothes. Sorry ladies,
 and some of the chaps

As for who will win, well South Africa have the best World Cup pedigree of any team since they first entered in 1995, so I'm going to have to go for the Boks. They just know how to win games.


So again, no real surprises with the winners. Perhaps some would pick England over France, which is a fair shout, but apart from that it's likely that the three Southern Hemisphere powerhouses will be competing for those final spots.

I'm going to leave the semi-finals for now and come back to them once the pool stages have played out, when we will know who will actually be playing in the quarters. For the record though, my pre-tournament tip is, boringly, like everyone else's it seems; New Zealand to beat South Africa, Australia to beat France, then New Zealand to go on and win the whole darn thing.

The most fun thing about these sort of predictions is the knowledge that the nature of sport means you will most likely be proven wrong on a few points, and that's when things get really interesting.

Two days to go. I am ready.

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Groups

With the Rugby World Cup 2011 almost upon us (I'm so ready) I had a gander at the different groups and possible qualifying permutations so that I can give you, gentle reader, something to think about and discuss. Or dismiss and ridicule. Whatever, it's your life.

So for those with short attention spans, here's the summary. New Zealand gon' win. There, now you can go back to watching people fall off skateboards or something on Youtube.

Seriously though, this one's worth watching. 

Just keep on reading once you're done

For the rest of you, here's a (slightly) more expansive analysis.

GROUP A - A for 'Absolutely fucked if you're not 1st or 2nd seed'

New Zealand - France - Tonga - Japan - Canada

Oh man. Tonga, Japan, Canada, thanks for coming, I hope you enjoy your brief visit to New Zealand. Check out Milford Sound if you've got time. Silly me, you'll have plenty of time, because you're definitely going out at the pool stage!

But seriously, there's no point speculating; New Zealand and France will go through. Not even France's capricious crippling Gallic indifference will be great enough to undo them against Tonga, Japan and Canada. Surely?

Shirely doesn't care about France, she only cares about Wales!
No, of course she hasn't been there in ages! She lives in the south of France!

So with the two qualifiers sorted, that brings us to the question of who's going through on top. New Zealand are strong favourites, but France have been something of a bogey team for them at previous World Cups, having caused upsets by knocking the favoured All Blacks out with that incredible comeback victory at the quarter-finals in 2007, and in the semi-finals in 1999.

Will it be a case of history repeating itself and France once again refusing to follow the form-book and instead humbling the favourites? Well no, probably not. For one, New Zealand look to be considerably better than France, who in their usual well thought out, sensible, pragmatic way have already announced that the coach leading them into the World Cup will be leaving.

CAPTION NOT REQUIRED

But more importantly, New Zealand won't have that extra pressure of each game being do-or-die, which comes with the later knock out stages. At the group level I think the All Blacks will keep their heads and qualify top, relegating France to second spot. Either way, New Zealand v France on Saturday September 24th is the pick of the pool stage matches.

GROUP B - B for 'Best group to be in'

Argentina - England - Scotland - Georgia - Romania

England's defence coach, Mike Ford, said that England were "probably in the group of death". If he thinks having Argentina and Scotland as your main competititors constitutes a 'group of death', then he's either high or not aware of who else is competing in the tournament.

"Ha ha, I'm sorry, what do you mean 'New Zealand and Australia are
going to be at the World Cup'? What? Oh crap! They're much tougher!"

There's possibly an argument that by being in a comparatively weaker group the team won't be properly tested and hence not prepared for tougher games to come. Interesting, but that ignores the fact that being in a weaker groups has its own considerable benefits like; the players won't be as tired, there's possibly less chance of injury and IT'S REALLY BLOODY EASY FOR ENGLAND TO GET TO THE QUARTER FINALS.

For the record I like Argentina and they are most definitely not the whipping boys of years gone by, but Wales dispatched them handily only a few weeks ago and I expect England to do much the same. As for Scotland, they might be able to engineer good victories over England in the 6 Nations, but I think the psychological difference that comes with a World Cup, i.e. there's bigger fish to fry, will enable England to beat Scotland too. So basically, England to finish top of Group B.

As for second place, well I can't see Georgia and Romania being in the mix, although apparently the popularity of rugby has grown significantly in both countries, which is great to hear. So it'll be a tear up between Argentina and Scotland then. This one's a tough call. I suspect this particular match, in fact this whole group, will be dominated by forward play, and on that basis I think 2nd place will go to... Scotland. Why? I don't know, I don't think there's that much to choose between the two, but I'd like to see Scotland get a bit of luck and do well for a change. A very scientific reason for picking them, I'm sure you'll agree.


GROUP C - C for 'Crikey mate! That's a walk in the park'

Australia - Ireland - Italy - Russia - USA

Australia are unsurprisingly favourites to qualify top of this group, but at first glance it might not seem that easy. Ireland have a pretty good reputation, Italy have come on a long way since their last World Cup, USA aren't terrible and Russia... well I don't know much about Russia, but you can't imagine them being soft.

Basically it's a group which has some well established teams in it. But establishment won't get you out of the group. The fact is Ireland, as shown in the warm-up games, are seriously struggling with a side that has come to rely too much on the genius of Brian O'Driscoll to conjure up tries. It shouldn't be this way, on paper they've got a good mix of hardened old-heads and talented young-tyros. But the team on he pitch recently don't resemble this paper team, and they're not looking too hot going into the tournament.

The next challenger in the group is Italy. I was really, really impressed with them in the last 6 Nations, and their upset of France goes down as my moment of the tournament. But they won't repeat that upset against the much more level-headed, and I think it's fair to say talented Wallabies.

At the bottom we've got USA and Russia, now that's a tasty match up... if we were all wearing global hyper colour t-shirts and this was 1986. But it ain't, so there's not much to say about these two. Although I am interested to see if Russia field a team of pituitary-glands with legs or maybe fifteen Siberian ice giants. We live in hope.

This is my basis for what the Russian team will be like.

So, given prevailing forms, Australia look to be in an even cushier position than England and I'm confident they will walk the group. That leaves Ireland and Italy to scrap it out for second, which I'm going to give to... Ireland. I think when it comes down to it, with the likes of Paul O'Connel, Jamie Heaslip and Brian O'Driscoll, they will have enough strength, talent and grit to get a victory against Italy. Being as it's their last group game it might not be a pretty one, but they'll do enough to get through to the quarters.


GROUP D - D for 'DEATH'

South Africa - Wales - Fiji - Samoa - Namibia

Now this is the group of death. For real. I'm not just saying that as a preemptive attempt to save Wales' blushes if they don't get out of the group, there are four teams here with a genuine chance of qualifying. South Africa, despite their poor form in the Tri-Nations where they fielded weakened sides, are strong favourites. They're one of those teams that seem to be able to turn up to World Cups with fairly unspectacular sides and then go on to do better than expected. A bit like Germany in football.

Less likeable than those cuddly Germans though.

So assuming South Africa do qualify top thanks to a mix of calmness under pressure, hard work, aggression and egregious cheating *Cough* Second Lions Test *Cough*, who will be joining them in the last 8?

The smart money is on Wales, but no one who is smart puts money on Wales. Which explains why I do. Repeatedly. And one of their few consistencies is that they struggle against the Pacific Island teams, especially Fiji and Samoa. Here's a brief history lesson to illustrate my point:

1991 World Cup - Wales lose to Western Samoa and exit at the pool stage
1999 World Cup - Wales lose to Samoa in the pool stages, but qualify from the group
2007 World Cup - Wales lose to Fiji and exit at the pool stage

So yeah, the precedent doesn't look good for Wales, and yet, I'm going to put them down to finish second in the group. I put my hands up now, this is based on little more than blind optimism. Yes they had some pretty good warm up games, but so did Samoa, who recorded a shock 32-23 win over Australia. But if Wales defend and commit themselves like they did against England and Argentina and don't give away possession through aimless kicking (I'M LOOKING AT YOU LEE BYRNE!), which is rugby suicide against these hard running sides, then they can secure second spot.

Come on, you didn't really expect me to tip them to exit the pool stages, did you?

GROUP SUMMARY

So the group winners are (or will be)

New Zealand - England - Australia - South Africa

And the runners up...

France - Scotland - Ireland - Wales

No real surprises or upsets to offer sadly. These eight qualifying from the groups seems to be the consensus. Having all the home nations in the quarter finals would be great, although seeing a couple upsets and an underdog or two get through would be great as well. As long as it's not at the expense of Wales!

Next Part : The Knock Out Stages

Warm Ups

Note: my computer had something of a digital prolapse so I haven't been able to make any new posts for a couple of weeks. All fixed now and I've got a couple of posts saved up so I will be updating the blog more often than once every two months. Maybe even as often as once a week! Wowza!

So after a prolonged rugby (union) drought over the summer we had our parched lips wetted with warm up games, a sample of the deluge that's coming our way in the guise of the World Cup in a couple of weeks. Forms were mixed with some bright spots and a few dark patches for the northern hemisphere teams, and none of them are likely to have cancelled the cleaning lady's summer holiday so she can give the trophy cabinet a dust in anticipation of bringing the Webb Ellis Cup home, or in the case of Scotland, go to Ikea and buy a bookshelf or something to put it on.

They can always use it to store some books instead. Like this one for example.

I watched all the Wales game, but only caught bits and bobs of the other games, so be warned this review will be Wales heavy, for a change.

The Games

The first game saw a fairly dire first half for Wales, as good tactical kicking from England kept the men in red pinned in their own half. England's advantage was helped by Wales' weak scrum thanks to the absense of Gethin Jenkins, Mathew Rees and Adam Jones, as well as the perenial problem at the lineout, which hasn't been good since forever.

This awkward first half for Wales gave way to something of a revival in the second as they outscored their English rivals, with the touted fitness improvement, a product of a tough training camp in Poland, seeming to give them the edge as the game wore on. It wasn't enough to produce a victory, but a narrow loss at Twickenham was probably better than a lot of Welsh fans were expecting.

The second game, at the lazily titled Millenium Stadium, was more fruitful for the boys in black, as Wales played in their cynically pointless black away strip used in times when they play other sides who wear red. So that's just Canada and Tonga then, neither of whom Wales are scheduled to play over the next 12 months as far as I'm aware. Oh Welsh Rugby Union, you scallywags!

Again, the WRU's view of the 'average' Welsh rugby fan.

Thankfully their display showed a little more dignity than the WRU marketing department. The centre pairing of Jamie Roberts and Gavin Henson was looking particularly good with their mix of flair and power. But the rugby candle that burns twice as bright burns half as long and sure enough after about half an hour ol' glass bones Henson broke his wrist and his season was ended prematurely yet again. A real shame as he was looking sharp with all that rugby talent still evident.

"Mr Glass" from Unbreakable, based on Gavin Henson and his comic book shop.

Aside from that unfortunate injury the team performed well, with the scrum more stable and defence in all areas rock solid again. They soaked up the pressure in the first half and ran a few tries in in the second to record a convincing 10 point win.

On the back of a narrow loss and a solid victory against England, Wales went into their final game against Argentina with some confidence, looking to take their warm-up record to 2 out of 3 and obtain that much lauded 'momentum' going into the World Cup. Personally I thought they might be a tad complacent after the England victory, and would possibly come unstuck against a ruddy team who, lest we forget, came 3rd in the 2007 World Cup. Thankfully Wales displayed a new found discipline and focus, and after a fairly turgid, error-strewn first-half, they went on to record another encouraging victory.

The Verdict

From what I've seen of the home nations Wales look to be in the best shape going into the world cup. England appear to have regressed to their  pre-six nations stodginess albeit with a lot of potential, Scotland still can't score tries, and Ireland, a team in which Bruce Forsyth would actually bring down the average age, seem to lack a cutting edge.

Let's not kid ourselves though, Wales are far from faultless; the front-row minus the considerable talents of Gethin Jenkins and Mathew Rees is suspect, Phillips is still well short of his world class best of a few years ago, full-backs appear to be selected according to some sort of names-out-of-a-hat process, and accuracy is to the Welsh line-out what the British government is to a summer crisis; completely absent. 

Welsh line-out accuracy and UK government; missing. If found please return... 
actually, if you find the government, don't bother.

But there are reasons to be optimistic. The back row, flanked by Wales's two brightest young stars, Dan Lydiate and Sam Warbuton, is looking very strong, Roberts and Davies in the centre have formed a good partnership, and in Shane Williams and George North we have two contrasting wingers who score tries for fun. But the most promising development of all has been Wales' overall defensive capabilities; they conceded only 3 tries in three games, while scoring 7, a product of maximum commitment to tackles, an ability to absorb punishment and pressure, and supreme fitness enabling them to sustain this level of competitiveness for 80 minutes. Couple this with a back line which looks to have regained its familiarity with the try line and Welsh fans can feel a warm ray of hope coming from a new horizon.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Wales are in one of the toughest groups in the tournament, facing South Africa, a team they have beaten only once in over a century of competition, Fiji and Samoa, Pacific Island teams who seem to have a knack of unstitching whatever game plan Wales have, and Namibia... Namibia.... Exactly! They'll still do well to get out of the group, but this time, we can be a little more hopeful.