So in yesterday's RWC preview I covered the likely qualifiers from the four groups. For those of you too damn lazy to go and look at it, I had the group winners as:
New Zealand, England, Australia and South Africa
And the runners-up as:
France, Scotland, Ireland and Wales
Pretty standard stuff really, no shocks to speak of. But the group stages can forgive lackluster performances and even the occasional slip up, as it's all about the best over four games. The knockout stages though, not so kind. This is where mental fortitude is tested as rigorously as playing aptitude (hi New Zealand 2007!) and where any dog having it's day can topple a feckless giant (hi Australia 2007!). The importance of 'form' begins to waver as smaller variables have larger effects; an intercepted try may not ruin your tournament at the group stage, but it sure as hell can during the knockouts. This is where the World Cup really comes to life.
So in this do-or-die arena what can we expect from the quarter finals?
Quarter Final 1 - New Zealand vs Scotland
New Zealand to win. I don't know what more analysis I can provide. They'll win by a lot, probably. Maybe 20 points. Maybe 30. Actually I suppose there is one thing you can say; if Scotland don't qualify then New Zealand will likely face Argentina, and as both of those two are relatively weak quarter finalists, it may leave the All Blacks ill-prepared for whoever awaits them at the next stage. But probably not.
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| At least they can join Canada, Tonga and Georgia at Milford Sound. It really is very nice, and well worth visiting. |
Quarter Final 2 - England vs France
We're either going to see England grind out a narrow win by boring France, the officials and every non-English fan to tears, or France having one of those games where they seem to ascend from the realm of mortals and play like Gods, temporarily looking like the greatest team to ever chuck a rugby ball around...
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| A bit like these fellas (Wales 1971!) |
A lot of people are citing England's impressive record against France in the World Cup and the Six Nations, going back to when they turned them over in the semi-finals in 2003, as evidence of them having some sort of psychological edge over the wayward French. But on their bad days a team of badgers have a psychological edge over France, the question is can England pressure them into having one of those bad days, the kind where they all mope around in their own half questioning the pointlessness of rugby and the Sisyphean nature of tournaments. Only a brave or foolish man would try and predict which French team will turn up. Luckily I'm pretty foolish (you should see the bets I've put on for this tournament!), so I'm going to call it for... France. They won't waste all that talent and be dumped out by England again. Surely?
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| Don't call me Shirley. It's DAME Shirley to you! |
Quarter Final 3 - Australia vs Wales
*Groan* I've tried with all my specious reasoning and one-eyed delusion to find a way to convince myself that Wales have got a GOOD chance to beat the Wallabies, but it's just not happening. This view will change the closer we get to the quarter final (assuming Wales haven't undone themselves by losing to Namibia, or reinstating Gareth Jenkins), and by the time we're hearing the anthems being sung I'll be foaming at the mouth proclaiming an 80-point Welsh victory is imminent.
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| Don't worry, I'll calm down once Australia score a breakaway try after 5 minutes. |
Australia have been looking particularly good recently and Wales just don't look to be on the same level, plus they're not a team to cause too many upsets, they're usually the ones suffering them. I suppose if you're going to go out, better to do so against one of the likely finalists, there's no shame in that. This is what I, sadly, expect to be repeating to myself on October 8th. Thankfully, with these early morning kick-offs I'll be able to get drunk a lot quicker. Ah sweet, sweet alcohol, eases the pain.
Quarter Final 4 - South Africa vs Ireland
This one's going to be tasty. I envisage these two out of form teams having a bloody tear up on the ground, with two grizzled packs of gnarled old forwards clashing in a nasty and brutish fashion, trying to wrestle possession from one another. For those of us who don't mind occasionally seeing a rugby field turn into a battlefield (so that's most of us), it should provide plenty of entertainment.
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| It's gonna be like this, but with clothes. Sorry ladies, and some of the chaps |
As for who will win, well South Africa have the best World Cup pedigree of any team since they first entered in 1995, so I'm going to have to go for the Boks. They just know how to win games.
So again, no real surprises with the winners. Perhaps some would pick England over France, which is a fair shout, but apart from that it's likely that the three Southern Hemisphere powerhouses will be competing for those final spots.
I'm going to leave the semi-finals for now and come back to them once the pool stages have played out, when we will know who will actually be playing in the quarters. For the record though, my pre-tournament tip is, boringly, like everyone else's it seems; New Zealand to beat South Africa, Australia to beat France, then New Zealand to go on and win the whole darn thing.
The most fun thing about these sort of predictions is the knowledge that the nature of sport means you will most likely be proven wrong on a few points, and that's when things get really interesting.
Two days to go. I am ready.
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