Rugby World Cup 2011 - Knock-Outs!

So in yesterday's RWC preview I covered the likely qualifiers from the four groups. For those of you too damn lazy to go and look at it, I had the group winners as:

New Zealand, England, Australia and South Africa

And the runners-up as:

France, Scotland, Ireland and Wales

Pretty standard stuff really, no shocks to speak of. But the group stages can forgive lackluster performances and even the occasional slip up, as it's all about the best over four games. The knockout stages though, not so kind. This is where mental fortitude is tested as rigorously as playing aptitude (hi New Zealand 2007!) and where any dog having it's day can topple a feckless giant (hi Australia 2007!). The importance of 'form' begins to waver as smaller variables have larger effects; an intercepted try may not ruin your tournament at the group stage, but it sure as hell can during the knockouts. This is where the World Cup really comes to life.

So in this do-or-die arena what can we expect from the quarter finals?

Quarter Final 1 - New Zealand vs Scotland

New Zealand to win. I don't know what more analysis I can provide. They'll win by a lot, probably. Maybe 20 points. Maybe 30. Actually I suppose there is one thing you can say; if Scotland don't qualify then New Zealand will likely face Argentina, and as both of those two are relatively weak quarter finalists, it may leave the All Blacks ill-prepared for whoever awaits them at the next stage. But probably not.

At least they can join Canada, Tonga and Georgia at Milford Sound.
It really is very nice, and well worth visiting.

Quarter Final 2 - England vs France

We're either going to see England grind out a narrow win by boring France, the officials and every non-English fan to tears, or France having one of those games where they seem to ascend from the realm of mortals and play like Gods, temporarily looking like the greatest team to ever chuck a rugby ball around...

A bit like these fellas (Wales 1971!)

A lot of people are citing England's impressive record against France in the World Cup and the Six Nations, going back to when they turned them over in the semi-finals in 2003, as evidence of them having some sort of psychological edge over the wayward French. But on their bad days a team of badgers have a psychological edge over France, the question is can England pressure them into having one of those bad days, the kind where they all mope around in their own half questioning the pointlessness of rugby and the Sisyphean nature of tournaments. Only a brave or foolish man would try and predict which French team will turn up. Luckily I'm pretty foolish (you should see the bets I've put on for this tournament!), so I'm going to call it for... France. They won't waste all that talent and be dumped out by England again. Surely?

Don't call me Shirley. It's DAME Shirley to you!

Quarter Final 3 - Australia vs Wales

*Groan* I've tried with all my specious reasoning and one-eyed delusion to find a way to convince myself that Wales have got a GOOD chance to beat the Wallabies, but it's just not happening. This view will change the closer we get to the quarter final (assuming Wales haven't undone themselves by losing to Namibia, or reinstating Gareth Jenkins), and by the time we're hearing the anthems being sung I'll be foaming at the mouth proclaiming an 80-point Welsh victory is imminent.

Don't worry, I'll calm down once Australia score
a breakaway try after 5 minutes.

Australia have been looking particularly good recently and Wales just don't look to be on the same level, plus they're not a team to cause too many upsets, they're usually the ones suffering them. I suppose if you're going to go out, better to do so against one of the likely finalists, there's no shame in that. This is what I, sadly, expect to be repeating to myself on October 8th. Thankfully, with these early morning kick-offs I'll be able to get drunk a lot quicker. Ah sweet, sweet alcohol, eases the pain.

Quarter Final 4 - South Africa vs Ireland

This one's going to be tasty. I envisage these two out of form teams having a bloody tear up on the ground, with two grizzled packs of gnarled old forwards clashing in a nasty and brutish fashion, trying to wrestle possession from one another. For those of us who don't mind occasionally seeing a rugby field turn into a battlefield (so that's most of us), it should provide plenty of entertainment.

It's gonna be like this, but with clothes. Sorry ladies,
 and some of the chaps

As for who will win, well South Africa have the best World Cup pedigree of any team since they first entered in 1995, so I'm going to have to go for the Boks. They just know how to win games.


So again, no real surprises with the winners. Perhaps some would pick England over France, which is a fair shout, but apart from that it's likely that the three Southern Hemisphere powerhouses will be competing for those final spots.

I'm going to leave the semi-finals for now and come back to them once the pool stages have played out, when we will know who will actually be playing in the quarters. For the record though, my pre-tournament tip is, boringly, like everyone else's it seems; New Zealand to beat South Africa, Australia to beat France, then New Zealand to go on and win the whole darn thing.

The most fun thing about these sort of predictions is the knowledge that the nature of sport means you will most likely be proven wrong on a few points, and that's when things get really interesting.

Two days to go. I am ready.

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Groups

With the Rugby World Cup 2011 almost upon us (I'm so ready) I had a gander at the different groups and possible qualifying permutations so that I can give you, gentle reader, something to think about and discuss. Or dismiss and ridicule. Whatever, it's your life.

So for those with short attention spans, here's the summary. New Zealand gon' win. There, now you can go back to watching people fall off skateboards or something on Youtube.

Seriously though, this one's worth watching. 

Just keep on reading once you're done

For the rest of you, here's a (slightly) more expansive analysis.

GROUP A - A for 'Absolutely fucked if you're not 1st or 2nd seed'

New Zealand - France - Tonga - Japan - Canada

Oh man. Tonga, Japan, Canada, thanks for coming, I hope you enjoy your brief visit to New Zealand. Check out Milford Sound if you've got time. Silly me, you'll have plenty of time, because you're definitely going out at the pool stage!

But seriously, there's no point speculating; New Zealand and France will go through. Not even France's capricious crippling Gallic indifference will be great enough to undo them against Tonga, Japan and Canada. Surely?

Shirely doesn't care about France, she only cares about Wales!
No, of course she hasn't been there in ages! She lives in the south of France!

So with the two qualifiers sorted, that brings us to the question of who's going through on top. New Zealand are strong favourites, but France have been something of a bogey team for them at previous World Cups, having caused upsets by knocking the favoured All Blacks out with that incredible comeback victory at the quarter-finals in 2007, and in the semi-finals in 1999.

Will it be a case of history repeating itself and France once again refusing to follow the form-book and instead humbling the favourites? Well no, probably not. For one, New Zealand look to be considerably better than France, who in their usual well thought out, sensible, pragmatic way have already announced that the coach leading them into the World Cup will be leaving.

CAPTION NOT REQUIRED

But more importantly, New Zealand won't have that extra pressure of each game being do-or-die, which comes with the later knock out stages. At the group level I think the All Blacks will keep their heads and qualify top, relegating France to second spot. Either way, New Zealand v France on Saturday September 24th is the pick of the pool stage matches.

GROUP B - B for 'Best group to be in'

Argentina - England - Scotland - Georgia - Romania

England's defence coach, Mike Ford, said that England were "probably in the group of death". If he thinks having Argentina and Scotland as your main competititors constitutes a 'group of death', then he's either high or not aware of who else is competing in the tournament.

"Ha ha, I'm sorry, what do you mean 'New Zealand and Australia are
going to be at the World Cup'? What? Oh crap! They're much tougher!"

There's possibly an argument that by being in a comparatively weaker group the team won't be properly tested and hence not prepared for tougher games to come. Interesting, but that ignores the fact that being in a weaker groups has its own considerable benefits like; the players won't be as tired, there's possibly less chance of injury and IT'S REALLY BLOODY EASY FOR ENGLAND TO GET TO THE QUARTER FINALS.

For the record I like Argentina and they are most definitely not the whipping boys of years gone by, but Wales dispatched them handily only a few weeks ago and I expect England to do much the same. As for Scotland, they might be able to engineer good victories over England in the 6 Nations, but I think the psychological difference that comes with a World Cup, i.e. there's bigger fish to fry, will enable England to beat Scotland too. So basically, England to finish top of Group B.

As for second place, well I can't see Georgia and Romania being in the mix, although apparently the popularity of rugby has grown significantly in both countries, which is great to hear. So it'll be a tear up between Argentina and Scotland then. This one's a tough call. I suspect this particular match, in fact this whole group, will be dominated by forward play, and on that basis I think 2nd place will go to... Scotland. Why? I don't know, I don't think there's that much to choose between the two, but I'd like to see Scotland get a bit of luck and do well for a change. A very scientific reason for picking them, I'm sure you'll agree.


GROUP C - C for 'Crikey mate! That's a walk in the park'

Australia - Ireland - Italy - Russia - USA

Australia are unsurprisingly favourites to qualify top of this group, but at first glance it might not seem that easy. Ireland have a pretty good reputation, Italy have come on a long way since their last World Cup, USA aren't terrible and Russia... well I don't know much about Russia, but you can't imagine them being soft.

Basically it's a group which has some well established teams in it. But establishment won't get you out of the group. The fact is Ireland, as shown in the warm-up games, are seriously struggling with a side that has come to rely too much on the genius of Brian O'Driscoll to conjure up tries. It shouldn't be this way, on paper they've got a good mix of hardened old-heads and talented young-tyros. But the team on he pitch recently don't resemble this paper team, and they're not looking too hot going into the tournament.

The next challenger in the group is Italy. I was really, really impressed with them in the last 6 Nations, and their upset of France goes down as my moment of the tournament. But they won't repeat that upset against the much more level-headed, and I think it's fair to say talented Wallabies.

At the bottom we've got USA and Russia, now that's a tasty match up... if we were all wearing global hyper colour t-shirts and this was 1986. But it ain't, so there's not much to say about these two. Although I am interested to see if Russia field a team of pituitary-glands with legs or maybe fifteen Siberian ice giants. We live in hope.

This is my basis for what the Russian team will be like.

So, given prevailing forms, Australia look to be in an even cushier position than England and I'm confident they will walk the group. That leaves Ireland and Italy to scrap it out for second, which I'm going to give to... Ireland. I think when it comes down to it, with the likes of Paul O'Connel, Jamie Heaslip and Brian O'Driscoll, they will have enough strength, talent and grit to get a victory against Italy. Being as it's their last group game it might not be a pretty one, but they'll do enough to get through to the quarters.


GROUP D - D for 'DEATH'

South Africa - Wales - Fiji - Samoa - Namibia

Now this is the group of death. For real. I'm not just saying that as a preemptive attempt to save Wales' blushes if they don't get out of the group, there are four teams here with a genuine chance of qualifying. South Africa, despite their poor form in the Tri-Nations where they fielded weakened sides, are strong favourites. They're one of those teams that seem to be able to turn up to World Cups with fairly unspectacular sides and then go on to do better than expected. A bit like Germany in football.

Less likeable than those cuddly Germans though.

So assuming South Africa do qualify top thanks to a mix of calmness under pressure, hard work, aggression and egregious cheating *Cough* Second Lions Test *Cough*, who will be joining them in the last 8?

The smart money is on Wales, but no one who is smart puts money on Wales. Which explains why I do. Repeatedly. And one of their few consistencies is that they struggle against the Pacific Island teams, especially Fiji and Samoa. Here's a brief history lesson to illustrate my point:

1991 World Cup - Wales lose to Western Samoa and exit at the pool stage
1999 World Cup - Wales lose to Samoa in the pool stages, but qualify from the group
2007 World Cup - Wales lose to Fiji and exit at the pool stage

So yeah, the precedent doesn't look good for Wales, and yet, I'm going to put them down to finish second in the group. I put my hands up now, this is based on little more than blind optimism. Yes they had some pretty good warm up games, but so did Samoa, who recorded a shock 32-23 win over Australia. But if Wales defend and commit themselves like they did against England and Argentina and don't give away possession through aimless kicking (I'M LOOKING AT YOU LEE BYRNE!), which is rugby suicide against these hard running sides, then they can secure second spot.

Come on, you didn't really expect me to tip them to exit the pool stages, did you?

GROUP SUMMARY

So the group winners are (or will be)

New Zealand - England - Australia - South Africa

And the runners up...

France - Scotland - Ireland - Wales

No real surprises or upsets to offer sadly. These eight qualifying from the groups seems to be the consensus. Having all the home nations in the quarter finals would be great, although seeing a couple upsets and an underdog or two get through would be great as well. As long as it's not at the expense of Wales!

Next Part : The Knock Out Stages

I called it! (Almost)

My prediction on Friday: Wales 16 – 24 Australia (ignore the shite I wrote in that Autumn International post)

The actual score: Wales 16 – 25 Australia.

Only one point out! I’m far too excited about almost getting the score right considering Wales lost. Especially seeing as I didn’t put any money on it.