So for those with short attention spans, here's the summary. New Zealand gon' win. There, now you can go back to watching people fall off skateboards or something on Youtube.
Seriously though, this one's worth watching.
Just keep on reading once you're done
For the rest of you, here's a (slightly) more expansive analysis.
GROUP A - A for 'Absolutely fucked if you're not 1st or 2nd seed'
New Zealand - France - Tonga - Japan - Canada
Oh man. Tonga, Japan, Canada, thanks for coming, I hope you enjoy your brief visit to New Zealand. Check out Milford Sound if you've got time. Silly me, you'll have plenty of time, because you're definitely going out at the pool stage!
But seriously, there's no point speculating; New Zealand and France will go through. Not even France's capricious crippling Gallic indifference will be great enough to undo them against Tonga, Japan and Canada. Surely?
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| Shirely doesn't care about France, she only cares about Wales! No, of course she hasn't been there in ages! She lives in the south of France! |
So with the two qualifiers sorted, that brings us to the question of who's going through on top. New Zealand are strong favourites, but France have been something of a bogey team for them at previous World Cups, having caused upsets by knocking the favoured All Blacks out with that incredible comeback victory at the quarter-finals in 2007, and in the semi-finals in 1999.
Will it be a case of history repeating itself and France once again refusing to follow the form-book and instead humbling the favourites? Well no, probably not. For one, New Zealand look to be considerably better than France, who in their usual well thought out, sensible, pragmatic way have already announced that the coach leading them into the World Cup will be leaving.
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| CAPTION NOT REQUIRED |
But more importantly, New Zealand won't have that extra pressure of each game being do-or-die, which comes with the later knock out stages. At the group level I think the All Blacks will keep their heads and qualify top, relegating France to second spot. Either way, New Zealand v France on Saturday September 24th is the pick of the pool stage matches.
GROUP B - B for 'Best group to be in'
Argentina - England - Scotland - Georgia - Romania
England's defence coach, Mike Ford, said that England were "probably in the group of death". If he thinks having Argentina and Scotland as your main competititors constitutes a 'group of death', then he's either high or not aware of who else is competing in the tournament.
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| "Ha ha, I'm sorry, what do you mean 'New Zealand and Australia are going to be at the World Cup'? What? Oh crap! They're much tougher!" |
There's possibly an argument that by being in a comparatively weaker group the team won't be properly tested and hence not prepared for tougher games to come. Interesting, but that ignores the fact that being in a weaker groups has its own considerable benefits like; the players won't be as tired, there's possibly less chance of injury and IT'S REALLY BLOODY EASY FOR ENGLAND TO GET TO THE QUARTER FINALS.
For the record I like Argentina and they are most definitely not the whipping boys of years gone by, but Wales dispatched them handily only a few weeks ago and I expect England to do much the same. As for Scotland, they might be able to engineer good victories over England in the 6 Nations, but I think the psychological difference that comes with a World Cup, i.e. there's bigger fish to fry, will enable England to beat Scotland too. So basically, England to finish top of Group B.
As for second place, well I can't see Georgia and Romania being in the mix, although apparently the popularity of rugby has grown significantly in both countries, which is great to hear. So it'll be a tear up between Argentina and Scotland then. This one's a tough call. I suspect this particular match, in fact this whole group, will be dominated by forward play, and on that basis I think 2nd place will go to... Scotland. Why? I don't know, I don't think there's that much to choose between the two, but I'd like to see Scotland get a bit of luck and do well for a change. A very scientific reason for picking them, I'm sure you'll agree.
GROUP C - C for 'Crikey mate! That's a walk in the park'
Australia - Ireland - Italy - Russia - USA
Australia are unsurprisingly favourites to qualify top of this group, but at first glance it might not seem that easy. Ireland have a pretty good reputation, Italy have come on a long way since their last World Cup, USA aren't terrible and Russia... well I don't know much about Russia, but you can't imagine them being soft.
Basically it's a group which has some well established teams in it. But establishment won't get you out of the group. The fact is Ireland, as shown in the warm-up games, are seriously struggling with a side that has come to rely too much on the genius of Brian O'Driscoll to conjure up tries. It shouldn't be this way, on paper they've got a good mix of hardened old-heads and talented young-tyros. But the team on he pitch recently don't resemble this paper team, and they're not looking too hot going into the tournament.
The next challenger in the group is Italy. I was really, really impressed with them in the last 6 Nations, and their upset of France goes down as my moment of the tournament. But they won't repeat that upset against the much more level-headed, and I think it's fair to say talented Wallabies.
At the bottom we've got USA and Russia, now that's a tasty match up... if we were all wearing global hyper colour t-shirts and this was 1986. But it ain't, so there's not much to say about these two. Although I am interested to see if Russia field a team of pituitary-glands with legs or maybe fifteen Siberian ice giants. We live in hope.
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| This is my basis for what the Russian team will be like. |
GROUP D - D for 'DEATH'
South Africa - Wales - Fiji - Samoa - Namibia
Now this is the group of death. For real. I'm not just saying that as a preemptive attempt to save Wales' blushes if they don't get out of the group, there are four teams here with a genuine chance of qualifying. South Africa, despite their poor form in the Tri-Nations where they fielded weakened sides, are strong favourites. They're one of those teams that seem to be able to turn up to World Cups with fairly unspectacular sides and then go on to do better than expected. A bit like Germany in football.
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| Less likeable than those cuddly Germans though. |
So assuming South Africa do qualify top thanks to a mix of calmness under pressure, hard work, aggression and egregious cheating *Cough* Second Lions Test *Cough*, who will be joining them in the last 8?
The smart money is on Wales, but no one who is smart puts money on Wales. Which explains why I do. Repeatedly. And one of their few consistencies is that they struggle against the Pacific Island teams, especially Fiji and Samoa. Here's a brief history lesson to illustrate my point:
1991 World Cup - Wales lose to Western Samoa and exit at the pool stage
1999 World Cup - Wales lose to Samoa in the pool stages, but qualify from the group
2007 World Cup - Wales lose to Fiji and exit at the pool stage
So yeah, the precedent doesn't look good for Wales, and yet, I'm going to put them down to finish second in the group. I put my hands up now, this is based on little more than blind optimism. Yes they had some pretty good warm up games, but so did Samoa, who recorded a shock 32-23 win over Australia. But if Wales defend and commit themselves like they did against England and Argentina and don't give away possession through aimless kicking (I'M LOOKING AT YOU LEE BYRNE!), which is rugby suicide against these hard running sides, then they can secure second spot.
Come on, you didn't really expect me to tip them to exit the pool stages, did you?
GROUP SUMMARY
So the group winners are (or will be)
New Zealand - England - Australia - South Africa
And the runners up...
France - Scotland - Ireland - Wales
No real surprises or upsets to offer sadly. These eight qualifying from the groups seems to be the consensus. Having all the home nations in the quarter finals would be great, although seeing a couple upsets and an underdog or two get through would be great as well. As long as it's not at the expense of Wales!
Next Part : The Knock Out Stages
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