Six Nations 2011 - Preview

James Hook: "What is the greatest feeling in Rugby?"

Warren Gatland: "To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, 

and to hear the lamentations of their women!"

Having just about recovered from the period of accepted alcoholism and binge easting that is the entire month of December, it's now time to throw yourself into five booze sodden weekends of rugby with the six nations. 

The tournament is often hailed, even by those down under, as the best rugby tournament in the world, this is in spite of it rarely producing the best rugby in the world, an accolade normally reserved for the tri-Nations. I see the six nations as the raucous drunk C student to the tri-nations serious sensible A student; the southern hemisphere may get more praise for their flawless execution of rugby, but everyone knows the real party is to be had with the often scrappy and occasionally capricious northerners.

If the Six Nations was a man 

What do you expect when you put England, France, Ireland, Scotland and Wales, 5 nations that have at various points over the past several hundred years beat the shit out of each other, in a competition which involves tens of thousand of drunk fans watching 30 guys smash each other about a pitch? Of course it's going to be exciting!

Oh yeah, and Italy too... the Romans were pretty badass... about 2000 years ago.

Italians today

On top of the historical rivalry, it tends to be a rather unpredictable tournament. Over the last 10 years four different countries have shared the championship, with only one team (France) winning it back to back. A good opening game can give an unfavoured underdog the momentum to shock the table and go on to win it, much like Wales did in 2005. 

This year is no different. Most pundits are tipping England or France to take top spot, but no one seems to be unequivocal about this. There is always the caveat that should they have a good start Ireland, and possibly even Wales, could be in the mix. Who knows Scotland might surprise us all. Stranger things have happened.

This man became Governor of California, the 9th largest economy 
in the world. Still less surprising than Scotland winning the 6 Nations.

So doing my best to reign in my delusional Welsh rugby dreams here's my tips for the tournament. In final finishing order:

1. England

Look at his little face!

I sicked in my mouth a bit putting England first. Only joking! I full on projectile vomited over my computer. I remain unconvinced that one very good win over Australia and one good performance against New Zealand in the Autumn is evidence of some bountiful renaissance in English rugby. However, I do think they've got enough power up front and skill in the backs to win the tournament in a year when no one seems to be flying high. On top of that they have 3 home games on the trot, including Scotland and Italy, two opportunities to perhaps give their points difference a big boost. I don't think it'll be a Grand Slam for them though; their final game is against the Irish at Lansdowne Road, and even with the momentum of four wins propelling them, I think Ireland will slam the brakes on - Champions by virtue of points difference. And probably cheating at some point (I can't help myself!)

2. France

Carla Bruni, You know she's the Lady Macbeth type, but I'd still like 
to kick 3 points through her posts. Wait... What?

To say the French are unpredictable is the biggest cliche in international rugby. But it's true, they are. They've got plenty of talent blah blah blah, kerrrr-azy coach blah blah blah, Gallic indifference blah blah blah, Inspector Clouseau. Fuck 'em, they'll inevitably render any of my carefully thought out analysis null and void so I'll keep it simple; beat everyone but England, lose out on top spot through points difference, someone will be dismissed from the team before the end of the tournament.

3. Ireland 

I'm not saying the Irish are dull, but... they knock down 
a stadium, build a new one, and expand the capacity by... 
2,000 seats. What's the point?

It was tough to pick the winner of 3rd spot but I'm opting for Ireland. The core of their team is getting so old they can probably use free bus passes to get to the grounds and save money (have you seen the state of Ireland's economy?!). But there are some hardened winners and exciting young prospects in the side, Leinster are in storming form in the Heineken Cup and with the two toughest teams, England and France, at home, they should be able to take 3rd spot. 

4. Wales 

Welsh rugby fans; more guilty of nostalgic denial than Joan Rivers FACE!

Oh my darling. Why do you languish down here? Well it's because you lost your two most important players (Adam Jones and Gethin Jenkins) to injury, thus diminishing the power and penetration of a pack that was a match for the best in the world in the Autumn. Jones and Jenkins are probably the only two players in the Welsh squad that you could call 'world class' at the moment. They are excellent scrummagers who also put in a lot of work in the loose, and in both attack and defence their contribution is massive. Beyond that, the rest of the team looks pretty good on paper, although Phillips could do with getting his shit together and it would be good to have Halfpenny on the wing with Williams. But the backs will not win the tournament for Wales. The Grand Slam victories of 2005 and 2008 were not built on flashy play from the backs but from imperious endeavor from the forwards, battling at every breakdown to win quick ball releasing the backs to do their thing. They should improve as the tournament goes on and some players come back from injury, but I don't think this will be their year... unless we beat England then it's Grand Slam 2011 all the way!

5. Scotland

If the current style of Scottish rugby could be summed up in a colour... 

Every year people talk Scotland up, making reference to some victory in the past 12 months, talking about how they've 'turned a corner' and that they could be dark horse contenders this time. Then they finish in the bottom half of the table. They have a few good players, but their club game is still weak and they lack the invention to really cause good opposition to think. If they beat England, France or Ireland I suspect it'll be in a ground out 9-6 upset. Nothing wrong with grinding out a win, except it's often indicative of team's lack of creativity and ability to really take the opposition apart. "You can shove your creativity up Shane Williams dancing arse, I'll take a ground out win over England, rather than a high scoring loss any day" you say. Well fair enough, so would I, but it doesn't change the fact that Scotland's best chance  against the top 3 comes from stopping them playing completely rather than taking the game to the opposition and dictating things on their terms. Until that changes, Scotland won't be serious contenders.

6. Italy

They stop Wales coming bottom so often 
and Rome is a lovely place to visit.

Still the whipping boys.  They've got two tough home games against Ireland and France and I think Wales should do enough to get a victory in Rome. Bottom and the wooden spoon this year. God, I hope that doesn't come back to bite me in the arse.

So there it is, balls on the line, that's what I think might happen. I fully expect  to be proven wrong on every single thing I've written. I wouldn't mind that, it would certainly keep things interesting. 

For anyone questioning my Welshness after placing them fourth, you should bear in mind that at 7:44 on Friday evening, just after Wales have sung Hen Wlad Fy Nhadau in the Millenium Stadium, I'll be 100% convinced we're going to sweep aside all before us and effortlessly complete another Grand Slam.

Game on!